EUV Lithography, ASML, and China

Why the “only one company” narrative is both true — and misleading

Recent reports about China’s progress in extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) lithography have once again triggered a familiar reaction in Western media and policy circles: ASML is the only company in the world that can do this; therefore, sanctions are working.

That conclusion rests on a statement that is technically accurate, yet strategically shallow.

To make sense of what is really happening, we need to resist headline logic and look at how technological leadership actually emerges — and how it erodes.

The narrow truth (and it is a truth)

In a precise, operational sense, ASML is indeed the only company today that delivers production-ready EUV lithography systems.

No other firm currently ships a machine that can, at the same time:

• generate EUV light at sufficient power,

• steer it using near-perfect multilayer mirrors,

• and operate with the uptime, yield, and stability required in high-volume semiconductor fabs.

That uniqueness explains ASML’s central geopolitical role.
It explains export controls.
And it explains why EUV systems are often described as the most complex industrial machines ever built.

But stopping the analysis here already distorts the picture.

The broader reality: lithography is not a monopoly

ASML is not “the only company in lithography.”
It is the only company in EUV at industrial scale.

Outside EUV, the field remains competitive and plural. Two Japanese firms in particular remain world-class:

• Nikon

• Canon

Their deep-ultraviolet (DUV) systems are essential for:

• automotive and power electronics,

• memory,

• analog and mixed-signal devices,

• and even advanced nodes via extreme multi-patterning.

China’s recent 7 nm achievements relied on DUV ingenuity, not EUV access. That fact alone should temper the idea that EUV equals technological existence.

So the accurate statement is not “ASML is the only lithography company”, but:

ASML is the only company that currently masters EUV lithography at scale.

That distinction matters — both technically and politically.

Why EUV became singular in the first place

EUV did not become “unique” because others were excluded at the outset.
It became unique because it crossed several physical thresholds simultaneously:

• EUV light cannot be focused with lenses — only mirrors

• Each mirror reflects barely ~70 % of the light

• Surface tolerances are measured in fractions of an atom

• The light source itself requires high-power lasers vaporizing tin droplets in vacuum

This capability emerged from three decades of cumulative, mostly public, transnational research: US laboratories, European optics, Japanese materials, global suppliers.

EUV is not a nationalist invention.
It is a civilizational achievement.

And that historical fact should give pause to anyone who believes long-term leadership can be preserved simply by closing doors.

Sanctions: what they can — and cannot — do

In several articles on Asia Platform, I have argued that excluding or sanctioning China does not help the world move forward. The EUV story is a textbook illustration.

Export controls can:

• delay access,

• raise costs,

• buy time.

They cannot:

• erase knowledge,

• suspend physics,

• prevent large-scale mobilization once a problem is framed as strategic.

China’s reported EUV prototype is not a production breakthrough. But it is a predictable response to exclusion. When locked out, technological systems do not stop; they reorganize internally — often inefficiently, often expensively, but with persistence.

History is remarkably consistent on this point:

Exclusion slows diffusion — but accelerates duplication.

The deeper risk: fragmentation, not competition

The real danger is not that China will “catch up.”
The real danger is the emergence of parallel, incompatible technology stacks, developed in isolation, driven by distrust rather than benchmarking.

The semiconductor ecosystem flourished because:

• standards were shared,

• competition was visible,

• excellence was enforced through comparison.

ASML’s leadership itself emerged from that environment. Turning leadership into a fortress may preserve advantage for a while — but it undermines the conditions that created it.

A sober conclusion

• Yes, ASML is currently unique in EUV.

• No, lithography is not a one-company field.

• And no, long-term technological leadership has never been sustained by exclusion alone.

If the objective is a world in which advanced technology continues to move forward, the real challenge is not how to freeze others out — but how to structure rivalry so that progress remains cumulative rather than adversarial.

EUV does not contradict that lesson.
It quietly reinforces it.